Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has already had a busy week. So far he’s predicted that Project Natal will run $50 for Xbox 360 users and that it will sell 10 million units in about a year, which he thinks will be five times as many units as Sony’s Arc will sell.

“I think that the Sony motion controller will have some problems gaining traction, since it is not an ‘in the box’ solution,” he told PS3 Center. “That will probably limit adoption to 1 or 2 million at the outset.” He thinks the extra sales of Natal will help it gain a third-party advantage over the Arc.

The real shocker for me is that $50 price tag for Natal. For a company that charges more than a benjy for a low capacity hard drive, $50 for the latest gaming technology seems crazy. Of course, that’s exactly what Nintendo did with the Wii and I think we all know how that turned out.